Available through CreateSpace Direct.”
Available through CreateSpace Direct.”
Donald Trump’s rhetorical comments on social media are mostly verbal jabs harmlessly landing on his opponents regarding foreign affairs. This calm is about to change. Trump and his advisors know that if he is to build a legacy as President, he must back it up with action due to his poor performance on domestic matters. This spectre amounts to air strikes on North Korea or Iran, particularly if they threaten U.S. Naval ambitions in international waters. If there is a wild card– Russian proxy interests in Syria tend to put it in harm’s way, so, it might be accidental against Russia in the Syrian conflict and/ or Russia vying for support from China against American hegemony. The multi-polarity of Near East and global politics is difficult to predict. If we look at Canada, who is currently embroiled with the U.S. over trade tariffs levied against Bombardier, Canada may be reticent to support America in a conflict, especially with a Canadian Liberal government that pulled fighter jets out of Iraq after the Liberal Party was elected in 2015. Canada’s main role is support and this will align Ottawa more traditionally and closely to her European allies.
Trump’s recent comments about “the calm before the storm” suggest that his war room is in preparation mode for an attack on North Korea; if Iran miscalculates, they will get a slap on the wrist depending on the levity of their actions. I felt that North Korea would have been on the receiving end of American cruise missiles by the middle of September. South Korea & Japan will play a deciding factor, particularly if former UN Secretary General Ban Ki moon wades into the fray to provide shelter, rhetorical or other-wise, to his homeland. Yes, moon failed in comparison to Kofi Anan, but, no doubt, built up impressive connections during his terms ( 2007-2016). Forbes magazine named Ban the 32nd most powerful person in the world in 2013. Anan had resided over impressive peace-keeping efforts when nearly 70,000 military and civilian personnel were deployed in UN operations around the world as quoted by David Bosco of Foreign Policy magazine on February 16, 2011. Therefore, Anan may provide influence as an advocate of nuclear non – proliferation, in general.
So, it really is up to Kim Jong – un to play his hand with velvet gloves against Trump, who is ready to make his mark internationally after losing his grip on domestic issues like health care along with the prospect of losing control of Congress on November 6, 2018. In the mean-time, clear a corner in your base-ment if residing on the West coast as Trump tries to catch lightning in a bottle with Kim Jong – un playing havoc with Hwasong ICBM’s.
The Central Government continues to ferret rules of engagement as it is closing Tibet’s borders for ten days between October 18-28, while the Communist Party holds meetings of the 19th National Congress. I’ve got to wonder if Xi would make time for “agencies” if trade value was at stake. As usual, it is “do as I say or pay more” else-where. And really, why are developed nation-states subsidizing the Chinese economy at the expense of home-grown R & D and jobs. We’ve taken a wrong turn and now it is a time for a serious re-think about rogue nation-states that flout human rights and their place in our democratized orbit. China can get there, but, not when we have tunnel vision on “factory of the world” procurements. Stand up for Tibet; she deserves the dignity. Tibet is not unlike the rain forest, with her delicate eco-system. Cluttering her environment with super- highways and high speed rail, nuclear waste and other forms of pollution only hastens the debilitating effects of climate change in neighbouring countries; India notwithstanding. Meanwhile, Chinese officials still continue to impose control over citizens that celebrate the Dalai Lama’s birthday which takes place on July 6. Chinese officials will wait until His Holiness ascends and then name a successor as they did with the Panchen Lama. Congressional talks ring familiar.
Chariot’s received some love when it was selected for a recommended reading list for a course at St. Andrew’s University in Scotland. I’m humbled and thankful.
Recommended Reading for “Agency and Strategy in Non-Western Political Thought (2015-16) and Fall 2017” at St. Andrew University, Scotland. Week Six.
Week 6: Self-Immolation by Fire
Chariots of fire: a Tibetan historical perspective – Kevin Kieswetter, 2014 Book
Available in print & Kindle format.
“A conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerilla wins if it does not lose. “
So said Henry Kissinger and one can’t but equate this to the Cold War happening in North Korea between Kim Jong – un and American interests. As all will agree, an armed confrontation between the two means loss and plenty of casualties. Will Kim Jong – un blink if the going gets tough? Will Donald Trump cower when body bags are sent home with no end in sight? Where is the common sense when staring down the barrel of a loaded gun.
North Korea, the guerilla in this scenario stands to lose in the area of mass casualties. Kim can lose legitimacy as leader if he fails to stand up to American aggression. He – Kim- will look weak among his generals and this opens the door to coup attempt to oust him and bring in an independent leader to steady the North. That may result in a leader chosen by Beijing and/or Moscow to curry favour to their hopes for stability and to avoid a refugee crisis. However, Kim is unlikely to go down without a fight to save face for the long-storied history of the Kim family in North Korea. A “Cult of Personality” will do that for a nation, collateral damage be damned. “Organized” protests in Pyongyang this week stirred the pot of discontent against Donald Trump’s fire and brimstone hubris that promises “fire and fury like the world has never seen.
The United States, the world power, and conventional army can win only if it avoids mass American casualties in a war that nobody wants. A recent poll suggests that Americans are more concerned than they have ever been about North Korea now that a missile strike inside the U.S. is technically possible for the Kim regime. The pressure is squarely on President Trump as he engages punch for punch in the rhetoric department with Kim and the North Korean propaganda machine. This summons potential images of the upcoming match between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor where by Mayweather has the most to lose in reputation, while Conor McGregor has the most money and prestige to gain if he can live through one round. Donald Trump cannot win this war of words or public relations tournament as he has chosen the route of an inexperienced leader with weak political chops, who refuses to be reined in by stalwarts inside the Republican Party such as Mitch McConnell and John McCain. Trump knows that his early returns as U.S. President are on shaky ground with his health-care proposal in tatters. He needs to secure a public relations victory to satisfy those factions inside his party and with the general population. Therefore, a diversion may be necessary to prop up his government and legacy along the lines of former President George W Bush and America’s foray into Iraq to dispense with alleged Iraqi WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) controlled by Saddam Hussein. One can hope that Trump wins his tax-bill reduction, NAFTA renegotiation, or Mexican wall proposal.
God Bless America is a formidable anthem for Western Democracy! Problem is, someone forgot to tell Members of Congress & the Senate about what justifies good governance for the electorate. Currently, both sides are in an imbroglio over the signature piece of legislation from former President Barrack Obama, that if defeated, stands to leave up to 20 million Americans without health-care. Senator John McCain seemingly resurrected from brain surgery that would make Lazarus proud, entered into the Senate chamber to cast a vote that would defeat the Republican motion to repeal Obamacare on Thursday, the evening of July 28. McCain crossed the floor of The Senate to cast a strong voice for maintaining coverage for those that would be affected under ‘Trump-Care.” Suffice it to say, there is humility to be gained when a surgeon has their way with you in the past seven days, and with McCain’s help, the motion was defeated.
Now, lost in this malaise is the notion that, at some point, ‘The Donald” is going to get fed up with the legal wrangling of the Presidency (there are a limit to veto’s) and leave this job if he is meant to look like Judas or Jihad. President Trump is not a seasoned politician. Canada had a similar issue with the unexpected election victory of Justin Trudeau, which validated that heredity is indeed important in the corporate boardroom and in political circles. The similarities end between Mr Trump, who has amassed wealth of approximately 3.5 billion USD through his ‘Art of the Deal’ exploits and Mr. Trudeau who was born into public office where his father was elected as Prime Minster of Canada when “Flower-Power” and Woodstock were reaching their zenith in North America. Mr Trump who is conditioned to managing his business affairs with a certain amount of moxie, must now be beholden to members of his own Party and Democrats if he hopes to pass any legislation. Trump will surely come to understand the political concepts of ‘log-rolling” and “pork-barrel politics” if he hopes to aspire to accomplish anything note-worthy during his term as President. I mention single term because I do not feel that he can withstand the demands that are necessary to survive as Head of State for American sovereignty in a multi-polar world. Gl0bal conflicts and the financial hang-over from 2008 has spread U.S. interests internationally, both in military matters and economic policy thin, without having lay pen to paper on NAFTA, Mexico’s wall, or a reprise of the ‘Axis – of- Evil” that his predecessor – George W Bush proclaimed for his two term opus in the 2000’s. There is a possibility of impeachment for Trump due to his dealings with Russia along with his personal legal issues relating to taxation and his questionable business ventures such as Trump University. If the log-pile becomes too high, another fare-well aboard Air – Force One may be in the offing, though, I imagine these aren’t the photo ops The Donald had in mind when the U.S. Presidency was a glint in his eye. In the case of Trump going over-board, a very capable replacement in Vice-President Mike Pence exists to steady a shaky Oval Office that can’t find it’s bearings. As the Triptych of this Air Force One photo illustrates, 1972 is a clarion call to past & recent Republican misadventures. Only the names have changed.
The apocalyptic 21st c has carved out a division on how best to determine the rights and responsibilities of government to their citizens, though, and maybe more crucial, has been the case of collective security. Economic matters will always retain their zeal among government in order to campaign for political office or re-election. The founding of the United Nations, the rights and responsibilities of those in affected regions with instability due to counter forces to the ruling elite (see Syria) or simply those factions that are at a crossroads of the many who fall under policy that favour them (see Britain), place a burden on UN members . The United States has shouldered the burden of collective security starting with The Treaty of Paris in 1898 that shifted independence to Cuba away from Spain and along with that Puerto Rico, The Philippines, and Guam into the American orbit and with that, a stronger sense of colonialism.1
Rightfully, the first order of business for government is the protection of their citizens, those who reside within their borders legally or have business interests that require their presence for extended periods of time (notwithstanding Multi-nationals.) They must be a guarantor of those rights or we have the prospect of opportunities for terrorism such as the incident in 1970 that led to the FLQ (Front de liberation du Quebec- a French Canadian separatist group) kidnapping British Trade Commissioner James Cross in Quebec, Canada. So, we have installed various mechanisms to protect government dignitaries and to a lesser extent, the average legal citizen.
However, the founding of the United Nations on October 24, 1945 promised a new world order based on “collective security” guaranteed by its members to provide assurances of safety. Great idea and wonderful concept, though, the post WWII global structure weighed heavily on the United States with much less of a role for stalwarts such as the United Kingdom, France and Italy. Germany and Japan had much work in front of them to win back the good graces of the international community and still have work to do to become truly sovereign nation- states apart from American influence. Former Harvard Professor, Samuel Huntington famously spoke of a culture change regarding conflict among humans in “The Clash of Civilisations” in 1996. Huntington could foresee the rise of Islamic fundamentalism born out of the Israeli- Palestine discord that has been festering since the founding of the state of Israel in a Post WW2 world. Staunch allies of Israel among Western powers has given rise to jihad and thrust various groups into the spotlight,most famously or infamously, Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden.
This notion of collective security then begs the question: what is a government’s responsibility and to whom.
Libertarian’s refer to positive and negative liberty. Negative liberty being characterised as the notion that I am free as long as I can act unimpeded by other persons while I am pursuing my objectives. If I am interfered with, then I am unfree. In the positive sense of liberty, my decisions are mine alone and not affected by external sources. This sounds good but a bit fishy. In government, we are affected every day by external forces who impose sanctions on us in the form of taxation. In our daily lives,we encounter laws that may affect us in a puerile manner, such as minor infractions like jaywalking, riding a bicycle without a helmet or other regional laws that are devised to protect us from ourselves and other citizens. The notion of immigration can create some unease because jobs are being shifted in this era of globalisation and soft(er) borders. Seats in classrooms are being allocated to international students that create competition among citizens for opportunities in the work-place and colleges that never existed to this extent for past generations, which drive up the cost of tuition. Yes, the benefit is a diverse group of students who bring a well-rounded palette of ideas and experiences to the class-rooom and this is invaluable. Ditto for the work-place.
Back to the notion of collective – security, the rise of jihad has spread to Europe and has left many Parisians and European’s lacking “Positive Liberty” which, in turn has forced governments to ramp up efforts to screen individuals or groups that may have designs on terrorist activity. Pivoting back, we might say that America and its allies flubbed the security file in Libya, Iraq and other nation-states that gave a window of opportunity for terrorist’s to enter. Currently, U.S. President Donald Trump is correct in claiming that some nation-states do not pay their fair share for collective security. Yes, the system is a bit convoluted with NATO a surrogate organisation competing for funding in order to do what the UN was designed to do in the first place. NATO was designed as an anti-dote to Eastern Europe and The Warsaw Pact, which itself was designed as a collective security blanket for the (FSU) Former Soviet Union. Along the way, the Allies found the lust for power too appealing once the Berlin Wall fell and with it the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. With that, the West has embroiled Russia over NATO’s incursion into Eastern Europe, while the U.S. has China in its crosshairs over their inability to curtail North Korea and their pursuit of nuclear proliferation. The recent death of American student, Otto Warmbier begs for a military response to North Korea’s abuse of the 22 year old held in detention. The New World Order is a, pardon the pun, a land-mine of Foreign Policy rationale; hence, a military operation on the Korean Peninsula might engulf that region in uncertainty and a refugee crisis for China and South Korea will ensue. America, then, is caught between a rock and a hard place in protecting its mainland from a potential missile strike from North Korea and placating to Conservative’s who admonish what Senator John McCain referred to as the murder of Otto Warmbier. Can America continue to operate in this version of a collective-security vacuum, without thrusting innocent parties into a global conflict. Is it too late to turn back the clock to a time when nation-states policed themselves, first & foremost. Military budgets be damned, suggest that with the rise of defense spending, the notion of peace-keeping will continue to vary with the Heads of State as well, placating to those naton-states that stimulate our economies with lower priced goods and multi-lateral, historical relationships. But, an attack is an attack on positive and negative freedoms and those that support all forms of democracy. Therin lay a government’s responsibility. Or not.